The International Coffee Organization’s statistics update of 10 September estimates world coffee production at 183.6 million 60-kg bags in coffee year 2025/26, up 4.4%, while consumption is estimated to decline 0.8%. The resulting balance is a projected surplus of 3.0 million bags, following four consecutive deficit years from 2021/22 through 2024/25.
For buyers in Oman, Iran, the UAE and the wider GCC, the projected global surplus improves the medium-term supply backdrop but should not be read as immediate availability of every origin, grade or shipment window. Near-term Arabica supply can remain tight even while the aggregate balance turns positive. Keep contracts staggered, compare Arabica and Robusta requirements separately, verify crop-specific physical availability and refresh landed-cost offers. This ICO balance is a market estimate—not a physical coffee offer or a guarantee of lower prices.