The medium-term balance is improving, but the prompt physical market remains uneven. ICO projects a 3.0 million-bag global surplus for 2025/26, yet cumulative green-bean exports through July were still 0.4% lower year on year and certified Arabica stocks remained at a multi-decade low.
- Medium-term supply: world production is estimated at 183.6 million bags, up 4.4%, against a projected 0.8% decline in consumption.
- Species divergence: Robusta output is forecast to grow 6.5% to 79.2 million bags, versus 2.8% growth in Arabica to 104.4 million bags.
- Shipment reality: July green-bean exports rose 6.3%, but cumulative exports for October 2025–July 2026 were still down 0.4% at 102.87 million bags.
- Prompt liquidity: London-certified Robusta stocks rose 19.5% to 0.83 million bags, while US-certified Arabica stocks ended August near 0.24 million bags, the lowest level since 1999.
Use two procurement clocks. For the next 30–90 days, secure critical Arabica volumes only against verified physical stock, specification and shipment slots, while re-tendering Robusta across qualified origins as availability improves. For the following three to nine months, keep commitments staggered so the projected surplus can translate into better physical offers without leaving core requirements uncovered. Compare landed offers—not benchmark direction alone—including origin differential, quality, freight, finance, documents and delivery risk. None of these forecasts or futures indicators is a physical coffee offer.