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Arabica and Robusta diverge: compare benchmarks before revising budgets

WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS
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Representative licensed coffee image; it does not depict the reported event, supplier or Atlas operations.

From 9 to 16 October, the ICO composite indicator rose from 258.53 to 265.95 US cents/lb (+2.87%). Colombian Milds rose 3.95%, Other Milds 4.09% and Brazilian Naturals 4.53%, while Robustas fell 1.61%. These changes compare the two verified Friday observations, not weekly averages. The October report was checked on 20 October; its 19 and 20 October rows were blank.

Verified signals and their limits
  • The latest complete row is dated 16 October: I-CIP 265.95; Colombian Milds 364.60; Other Milds 341.76; Brazilian Naturals 301.22; Robustas 165.34 US cents/lb.
  • The 16 October composite rebounded 2.14% from 15 October. A one-day rebound and a Friday-to-Friday comparison describe different periods.
  • The report does not establish why the groups diverged or quote a physical lot. New group weights apply from 1 October; this comparison stays within that weighting period.
Atlas commercial interpretation

For roasters, importers and distributors in Oman, the UAE and Iran, one composite percentage is a poor substitute for a buying budget built around the actual coffee required. Keep Arabica and Robusta requirements separate, and compare each offer against the appropriate dated benchmark. A falling Robusta indicator does not establish that a suitable physical lot is cheaper or available. Ask for a written offer with the crop, grade, process, quantity, currency, validity and named delivery basis made clear. Separate freight and destination costs from the coffee quotation. Where a blend change is being considered, assess the sample and its intended use before treating a different coffee as a substitute. Record the benchmark date used in each comparison, and revisit the calculation when a newer complete observation is published. This is a procurement framework, not a forecast, an offer or confirmation of Atlas stock. Review the dated indicators. For transaction-specific requirements, use the website contact section and review and send the WhatsApp draft it prepares.

ICO October 2026 daily report: observations 9, 15 and 16 October; checked 20 October

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